模糊层次分析法在我国深空探测方案优选应用探究

刘彤杰; 宋洪庆; 张杰; 骆笑天; 彭如意; 张贤国

doi:10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008

模糊层次分析法在我国深空探测方案优选应用探究

doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008

刘彤杰^{1, 2},
宋洪庆^{3, 4, ,},
张杰^{3, 4},
骆笑天^{3, 4},
彭如意⁵,
张贤国^{4, 5}

1.
北京航空航天大学宇航学院，北京 102206
2.
上海航天技术研究院，上海 201109
3.
北京科技大学土木与资源工程学院，北京 100083
4.
北京科技大学深空探测与资源识别利用联合实验室，北京 100083
5.
中国科学院国家空间科学中心，北京 100190

详细信息

通讯作者:
E-mail: songhongqing@ustb.edu.cn

中图分类号: P967;V57;O232
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-12-06
- 网络出版日期: 2022-04-02

Application of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in deep space exploration program optimization in China

LIU Tong-jie^{1, 2},
SONG Hong-qing^{3, 4
, ,},
ZHANG Jie^{3, 4},
LUO Xiao-tian^{3, 4},
PENG Ru-yi⁵,
ZHANG Xian-guo^{4, 5}

1.
School of Astronautics, BEIHANG University, Beijing 102206, China
2.
Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology, Shanghai 201109, China
3.
School of Civil and Resources Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
4.
Joint Laboratory of Deep Space Exploration, Resource Identification and Utilization, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
5.
National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail: songhongqing@ustb.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 中国深空探测是复杂的系统工程，涉及领域多、技术难度大、经费需求高，目前方案优选方法是论证组论证和中介机构专家评估后形成，该方法论证周期长，不易快速做出科学决策。本文基于模糊层次分析模型，考虑技术、科学、经费等多指标多层次结构，建立系统指标评价模型。以中国探月工程中嫦娥四号任务方案为具体算例，综合专家判断和理论分析，建立各层次指标的判断矩阵，计算权重系数，进而实现总体方案的优选应用评价。结果表明，技术、科学和经费这三个因素相对于周期和效益更为重要。在4个备选方案中，由长征四号丙发射中继星，长征三号乙发射着陆器和巡视器组合体的方案，排序权值最大，因此该方案为最优方案，这也与实际情况一致。本研究可为我国后续各类深空探测方案制定提供快速及科学的理论支撑。
- 深空探测 /
- 探月工程 /
- 方案优选 /
- 模糊层次分析法 /
- 权重系数
Abstract: China’s deep space exploration program is a complex and systematic project involving many fields and having great technical difficulties and funding requirements. The current program optimization method was developed in response to the demonstration group’s demonstration and the expert evaluation of the intermediary agency. This method requires a long demonstration period and makes rapid scientific decisions difficult. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) are both practical multi-factor and multi-objective decision-making methods that are widely used in many fields. To solve the problem of AHP being difficult to verify and judge for consistency, the concept of a fuzzy, consistent matrix was introduced, followed by the establishment of the FAHP. The introduction of the FAHP into the optimization of the overall scheme for deep space exploration benefits both the selection of the optimal overall scheme at the national level, which enables all relevant parties to reach consensus as soon as possible, and the national scientific decision-making process. This study established a systematic index evaluation model based on the FAHP model, considering the multi-index and multi-level structure of technology, science, and funding, among other things. By combining expert judgment and theoretical analysis, a judgment matrix of indicators at various levels was established and weight coefficients were derived for the Chang’e-4 mission plan in China’s lunar exploration project. Then, the overall plan was evaluated for optimal applicability. The results show that the three factors of technology, science, and funding are more important than time and benefit. Advancement and reliability are the primary control factors under the technical criteria. Scientific value is the major controlling factor when it comes to scientific criteria. The development cost is the primary constraint on the funding criterion. Planning compliance and planning feasibility are the primary controlling factors under the cycle criterion. Scientific output and technological promotion are the major controlling factors under the criterion of benefit. Among the four alternatives, the one in which the relay satellite is launched by the Long March 4C and the lander and rover are launched by the Long March 3B has the largest sorting weight. As a result, this solution is the optimal solution that is also consistent with the current situation. This research can help China provide rapid and scientifically sound support for various deep space exploration programs.
- deep space exploration /
- lunar exploration /
- scheme optimization /
- fuzzy analytic hierarchy process /
- weight coefficient

HTML全文

图 1 模糊层次分析法流程图

Figure 1. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process flow chart

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图 2 层次结构图

Figure 2. Hierarchical chart

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图 3 准则层各因素对目标层的权重

Figure 3. Weights of each factor of criterion layer to target layer

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图 4 指标层各因素对准则层因素的权重. (a) 技术; (b) 科学; (c) 经费; (d) 周期; (e) 效益

Figure 4. Weights of each factor in the index layer to the factor in the criterion layer: (a) technology; (b) science; (c) expenditure; (d) cycle; (e) benefit

（e）

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图 5 各方案对技术对应指标层各元素的权重. (a) 先进性; (b) 可靠性; (c) 资源需求; (d) 团队基础; (e) 体系规范; (f) 风险; (g) 综合

Figure 5. Weights of each scheme to each element of the corresponding index layer of technology: (a) advancement; (b) reliability; (c) resource requirements; (d) team basis; (e) system specification; (f) risk; (g) synthesis

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图 6 各方案对科学对应指标层各元素的权重

Figure 6. Weights of each scheme to each element in the scientific corresponding index layer

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图 7 各方案对经费对应指标层各元素的权重

Figure 7. Weights of each element in the corresponding index layer for each program’s expenditure

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图 8 各方案对周期对应指标层各元素的权重

Figure 8. Weights of each element in the index layer corresponding to the period of each scheme

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图 9 各方案对效益对应指标层各元素的权重

Figure 9. Weights of each scheme to each element of corresponding index layer

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图 10 探月总体方案的总排序权值

Figure 10. Total ranking weight of lunar exploration program

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表 1 简单标度法

Table 1. Simple scale method

Scale	Definition	Explanation
0	Unimportant	One element is less important than the other by comparison
0.5	Same	The two elements are equally important in comparison
1	Important	When two elements are compared, one element is more important than the other

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表 2 嫦娥四号总体方案

Table 2. Overall plan for CE-4

Project	Concrete content
Project 1	It was launched on a Russian Soyuz rocket. The combination of lander and rover was launched on a CZ-3B carrier rocket.
Project 2	The relay satellite will be launched by the CZ-2C +SM solid upper stage, while the CZ-3B will launch a combination of lander and rover.
Project 3	The relay satellite will be launched by CZ-4C and the lander and rover will be launched by CZ-3B.
Project 4	The Long March 5 will launch a relay satellite and a combination of lander and rover.

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表 3 F-S优先关系矩阵

Table 3. F-S priority matrix

Factor	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
S1	0.5	0.5	0.5	1	1
S2	0.5	0.5	0.5	1	1
S3	0.5	0.5	0.5	1	1
S4	0	0	0	0.5	0.5
S5	0	0	0	0.5	0.5

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表 4 S1-T优先关系矩阵

Table 4. S1-T priority matrix

Factor	T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6
T1	0.5	0.5	1	1	1	1
T2	0.5	0.5	1	1	1	1
T3	0	0	0.5	0	0.5	0.5
T4	0	0	1	0.5	1	1
T5	0	0	0.5	0	0.5	0.5
T6	0	0	0.5	0	0.5	0.5

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表 5 T1-P优先关系矩阵

Table 5. T1-P priority matrix

Factor	P1	P2	P3	P4
P1	0.5	0	0	0
P2	1	0.5	0	0
P3	1	1	0.5	0
P4	1	1	1	0.5

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