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模糊层次分析法在我国深空探测方案优选应用探究

刘彤杰 宋洪庆 张杰 骆笑天 彭如意 张贤国

刘彤杰, 宋洪庆, 张杰, 骆笑天, 彭如意, 张贤国. 模糊层次分析法在我国深空探测方案优选应用探究[J]. 工程科学学报. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008
引用本文: 刘彤杰, 宋洪庆, 张杰, 骆笑天, 彭如意, 张贤国. 模糊层次分析法在我国深空探测方案优选应用探究[J]. 工程科学学报. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008
LIU Tong-jie, SONG Hong-qing, ZHANG Jie, LUO Xiao-tian, PENG Ru-yi, ZHANG Xian-guo. Application of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in deep space exploration program optimization in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008
Citation: LIU Tong-jie, SONG Hong-qing, ZHANG Jie, LUO Xiao-tian, PENG Ru-yi, ZHANG Xian-guo. Application of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in deep space exploration program optimization in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008

模糊层次分析法在我国深空探测方案优选应用探究

doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    E-mail: songhongqing@ustb.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P967;V57;O232

Application of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in deep space exploration program optimization in China

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  • 摘要: 中国深空探测是复杂的系统工程,涉及领域多、技术难度大、经费需求高,目前方案优选方法是论证组论证和中介机构专家评估后形成,该方法论证周期长,不易快速做出科学决策。本文基于模糊层次分析模型,考虑技术、科学、经费等多指标多层次结构,建立系统指标评价模型。以中国探月工程中嫦娥四号任务方案为具体算例,综合专家判断和理论分析,建立各层次指标的判断矩阵,计算权重系数,进而实现总体方案的优选应用评价。结果表明,技术、科学和经费这三个因素相对于周期和效益更为重要。在4个备选方案中,由长征四号丙发射中继星,长征三号乙发射着陆器和巡视器组合体的方案,排序权值最大,因此该方案为最优方案,这也与实际情况一致。本研究可为我国后续各类深空探测方案制定提供快速及科学的理论支撑。

     

  • 图  1  模糊层次分析法流程图

    Figure  1.  Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process flow chart

    图  2  层次结构图

    Figure  2.  Hierarchical chart

    图  3  准则层各因素对目标层的权重

    Figure  3.  Weights of each factor of criterion layer to target layer

    图  4  指标层各因素对准则层因素的权重. (a) 技术; (b) 科学; (c) 经费; (d) 周期; (e) 效益

    Figure  4.  Weights of each factor in the index layer to the factor in the criterion layer: (a) technology; (b) science; (c) expenditure; (d) cycle; (e) benefit

    (e)

    图  5  各方案对技术对应指标层各元素的权重. (a) 先进性; (b) 可靠性; (c) 资源需求; (d) 团队基础; (e) 体系规范; (f) 风险; (g) 综合

    Figure  5.  Weights of each scheme to each element of the corresponding index layer of technology: (a) advancement; (b) reliability; (c) resource requirements; (d) team basis; (e) system specification; (f) risk; (g) synthesis

    图  6  各方案对科学对应指标层各元素的权重

    Figure  6.  Weights of each scheme to each element in the scientific corresponding index layer

    图  7  各方案对经费对应指标层各元素的权重

    Figure  7.  Weights of each element in the corresponding index layer for each program’s expenditure

    图  8  各方案对周期对应指标层各元素的权重

    Figure  8.  Weights of each element in the index layer corresponding to the period of each scheme

    图  9  各方案对效益对应指标层各元素的权重

    Figure  9.  Weights of each scheme to each element of corresponding index layer

    图  10  探月总体方案的总排序权值

    Figure  10.  Total ranking weight of lunar exploration program

    表  1  简单标度法

    Table  1.   Simple scale method

    ScaleDefinitionExplanation
    0UnimportantOne element is less important than the other by comparison
    0.5SameThe two elements are equally important in comparison
    1ImportantWhen two elements are compared, one element is more important than the other
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  嫦娥四号总体方案

    Table  2.   Overall plan for CE-4

    ProjectConcrete content
    Project 1It was launched on a Russian Soyuz rocket. The combination of lander and rover was launched on a CZ-3B carrier rocket.
    Project 2The relay satellite will be launched by the CZ-2C +SM solid upper stage, while the CZ-3B will launch a combination of lander and rover.
    Project 3The relay satellite will be launched by CZ-4C and the lander and rover will be launched by CZ-3B.
    Project 4The Long March 5 will launch a relay satellite and a combination of lander and rover.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  F-S优先关系矩阵

    Table  3.   F-S priority matrix

    FactorS1S2S3S4S5
    S10.50.50.511
    S20.50.50.511
    S30.50.50.511
    S40000.50.5
    S50000.50.5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  S1-T优先关系矩阵

    Table  4.   S1-T priority matrix

    FactorT1T2T3T4T5T6
    T10.50.51111
    T20.50.51111
    T3000.500.50.5
    T40010.511
    T5000.500.50.5
    T6000.500.50.5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  T1-P优先关系矩阵

    Table  5.   T1-P priority matrix

    FactorP1P2P3P4
    P10.5000
    P210.500
    P3110.50
    P41110.5
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-12-06
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-04-02

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