基于SPA–熵权–TOPSIS模型的露天矿边坡岩体风险分级评价及应用

Integrating multi-source numerical simulation data with multi-criteria decision-making for stability assessment of open-pit mine slopes

  • 摘要: 露天矿边坡稳定性受岩体性质以及边坡高度、坡率等多因素共同影响,具有不确定性和复杂性,极限平衡、数值模拟等单一稳定性评价方法难以全面的获取边坡稳定性分析结果. 为此,提出一种融合数值模拟与多指标决策理论的综合评价体系,以期更好表征边坡稳定性状态. 研究结果表明:(1) GSI在SPA–熵权–TOPSIS综合体系中对相对贴近度影响最为显著,边坡高度次之,最后是台阶坡角;(2) 最大水平应力、最大位移和塑性区体积占比为评价指标体系的核心关键;(3) 针对单一力学指标在稳定性判别上的不一致性,明确了多维度指标协同评价的必要性;(4) 构建的SPA–熵权–TOPSIS综合评价体系有效融合了多源数值模拟数据,通过客观赋权纠正了传统评价中的主观偏差. 该体系在露天矿边坡稳定性评估中展现出良好的适用性与精准度,为矿山安全分级管控与设计优化提供了量化的科学决策工具.

     

    Abstract: The stability of open-pit mine slopes plays a critical role in ensuring the safety and economic efficiency of large-scale mining operations. However, this stability is governed by a complex interplay of multiple factors, including inherent rock mass properties, slope height, and slope gradient. These factors introduce significant levels of uncertainty and nonlinearity into the mechanical response of the slope. Traditional evaluation methods, such as the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and singular numerical simulation (NS) approaches, are often ineffective in providing a comprehensive perspective. LEM focuses on the safety factor based on a predefined slip surface, and NS provides detailed stress–strain fields. However, neither approach can easily synthesize diverse mechanical indicators into a unified decision-making framework. To address this limitation, in this paper proposes a novel integrated evaluation system that fuses multi-source numerical simulation data with multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) theories. Specifically, the system employs set pair analysis (SPA), entropy weighting, and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). A systematic numerical modeling is utilized to generate a comprehensive dataset, which is then processed using the proposed SPA–Entropy–TOPSIS framework. The findings are summarized as follows: (1) Sensitivity analysis of influencing factors reveals that within the SPA–Entropy–TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation hierarchy, the geological strength index (GSI) exerts the most significant impact on the relative closeness (stability degree) of the slope. This is followed by slope height, while the bench slope angle has a relatively minor but measurable influence. This ranking emphasizes that the intrinsic quality of the rock mass is the primary determinant of stability in the investigated geological environment. (2) Among the various mechanical responses monitored, the maximum horizontal stress, maximum displacement magnitude, and volume ratio of the plastic zone are identified as the core indicators. These three parameters capture the essential characteristics of slope deformation, stress redistribution, and failure evolution, providing a robust physical basis for the mathematical model. (3) A critical challenge in traditional analysis is the inconsistency of single mechanical indicators during stability judgment. For instance, a slope may exhibit acceptable displacement levels while showing an alarmingly large plastic zone. This study underscores the need for a multidimensional collaborative evaluation approach, which can reconcile conflicting indicators to provide a more reliable safety assessment. (4) The proposed SPA–Entropy–TOPSIS evaluation system effectively integrates multi-source numerical simulation data. By utilizing the entropy weighting method, the framework assigns objective weights to each indicator based on their information entropy, successfully correcting the subjective biases inherent in traditional expert-based weighting methods. Furthermore, SPA enhances the model by addressing the "certainty–uncertainty" relationship between the slope’s current state and its threshold limits. Overall, the proposed system demonstrates high applicability and precision in the stability assessment of open-pit mine slopes. It transforms fragmented numerical data into a prioritized ranking of stability states, providing mine engineers and decision-makers with a quantitative, scientifically rigorous tool for safety grading, risk management, and design optimization. This methodology offers a new paradigm for transitioning from empirical safety factor judgments to multi-index integrated intelligent decision-making in geotechnical engineering.

     

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