Mathews稳定图在矿山稳定性评估中的研究现状及展望

Research status and prospects of using Mathews stability graph in mine-stability assessment

  • 摘要: 采场稳定性评估是地下安全开采的核心环节. Mathews稳定图法实现了由地质经验定性描述向工程设计定量评价的跃迁. 本文系统剖析了该方法提出四十余年来的力学机理演进与演化本质,指出各因子的修正实质上完成了从早期粗略的经验估算向岩体应力路径、节理空间效应及脆性剪切损伤等多机制力学判别的深化,且各因子内部存在非线性的时效劣化耦合网络. 此外,本文客观评估了统计回归、概率判别与数值模拟在重构不确定性稳定边界中的应用价值与泛化局限. 针对国内破碎软弱矿体研究长期以国外基础数据为主要依据、本地典型样本规模有限导致直接套用时误差大的瓶颈,未来研究应超越传统图表的静态界限,聚焦于构建本土化矿山标准化数据库,利用等效强度参数反分析方法攻克现场取芯表征难题,并融入开采扰动下的岩体累积损伤演化规律,推动经验分级向机理融合的动态智能设计体系深度演进.

     

    Abstract: The stability assessment of underground stopes is a fundamental prerequisite for safe and efficient mining operations. In this context, the Mathews stability graph method is widely adopted for open stope design as it enables the transition from qualitative geological experience to quantitative engineering evaluation. This paper systematically reviews the theoretical evolution and methodological development of the stability graph method over the past four decades through comprehensive literature analysis, comparative evaluation of representative stability graph versions, and critical examination of the mechanical significance of key controlling factors. This study focuses on the evolution of the stability number and hydraulic radius framework, and investigates the progressive refinement of rock mass quality, stress adjustment, joint orientation, gravity influence, and subsequent modification factors in different generations of stability graphs. Additionally, the historical development of major stability graph datasets and boundary calibration strategies is examined to clarify the relationships between empirical observations, engineering experience, and theoretical interpretation. The results indicate that instead of mere empirical parameter adjustment, the evolution of this method represents a fundamental advancement in understanding rock mass behavior and failure mechanisms. The modification of individual factors has gradually transformed the method from a coarse empirical design tool into a semi-mechanistic framework capable of capturing stress-path effects, structural discontinuity interactions, stress-induced brittle failure, and excavation-related damage processes. Furthermore, the controlling factors exhibit nonlinear coupling relationships associated with stress redistribution, structural complexity, and time-dependent degradation, thus indicating that stope stability is governed by multiple interacting mechanisms instead of isolated variables. Comparative assessment of different stability graph revisions demonstrates that predictive performance is improved primarily through a more realistic representation of rock mass response and failure processes instead of through statistical recalibration alone. Additionally, this review evaluates the application of statistical regression, probabilistic classification, numerical simulation, and emerging data-driven approaches in redefining stability boundaries and quantifying uncertainty. These methods improve prediction accuracy and expand the applicability of stability assessment under complex geological conditions; however, their reliability depends significantly on the database quality, sample representativeness, and regional geological characteristics. Critical challenges identified include extensive reliance on foreign empirical datasets and the limited availability of standardized local databases, which result in significant prediction errors when existing stability criteria are directly applied to fractured, weak, or highly stressed rock masses. Hence, future studies should establish localized and continuously updated stope stability databases; develop equivalent rock mass strength back-analysis methods to overcome the challenges of in-situ characterization; and integrate excavation-induced cumulative damage evolution, time-dependent deterioration, and real-time monitoring information into stability assessment frameworks. The findings indicate that advancing the stability graph method requires integrating empirical knowledge, mechanical understanding, and intelligent prediction technologies. This integration shifts stope design from static, classification-based frameworks to dynamic, adaptive, and mechanism-informed ones, thereby strengthening underground excavation stability assessment, risk management, and intelligent decision-making in modern mining engineering.

     

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