基于SVMD-Mamba模型的分布式光伏短期功率预测误差修正方法

The Method for Correcting Short-Term Power Forecast Errors in Distributed Photovoltaic Systems Based on Sequential Variational Modal Decomposition and the Mamba Model

  • 摘要: 随着能源结构调整和双碳目标的提出,分布式光伏短期功率预测备受瞩目,高精度的功率预测可以为分布式电站优化调度提供重要信息。考虑到预测过程中不可避免产生误差并且初步预测的误差序列普遍存在多尺度特性耦合、非平稳随机性高等影响预测精度的问题,本文提出一种基于连续变分模态分解和Mamba模型的分布式光伏短期功率预测误差修正方法。该方法首先使用连续变分模态分解对初步预测的误差序列进行自适应分解,将其拆解为若干具有不同中心频率的模态分量,从而有效剥离多尺度特征。再采用Mamba模型对分解处理后的误差序列进行预测,Mamba凭借其线性复杂度的状态空间建模能力和输入自适应的选择性机制,能够精准捕获不同输入特征的时序依赖关系,实现精确的误差序列预测。最后将预测得到的误差补偿值并与初步预测功率叠加,完成对初步预测结果的修正。仿真采用我国南方城市某分布式光伏电站实际数据验证本文分布式光伏短期功率预测误差修正方法的有效性,仿真结果表明本文方法在提高初步预测精度具有优越性,具有一定的工程应用价值。

     

    Abstract: With the restructuring of the energy structure and the proposal of the dual carbon goals carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, short-term power prediction for distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems has garnered extensive attention. High-precision power prediction can provide critical support for the optimal dispatch of distributed power stations. Considering that errors are unavoidable in the prediction process, and the preliminary prediction error sequence is generally characterized by coupled multi-scale features and high non-stationary randomness, which further impair prediction accuracy, this paper proposes an error correction method for short-term power prediction of distributed PV systems based on Sequential Variational Mode Decomposition (SVMD) and the Mamba model. The proposed method first employs SVMD to adaptively decompose the preliminary prediction error sequence into several modal components with distinct central frequencies, thereby effectively decoupling multi-scale features. Subsequently, the Mamba model is utilized to predict the decomposed error sequence. By virtue of its state space modeling capability with linear complexity and input-adaptive selective mechanism, Mamba can accurately capture the temporal dependencies of diverse input features and achieve precise prediction of the error sequence. Finally, the predicted error compensation values are superimposed onto the preliminary predicted power to correct the initial prediction results. Simulations are carried out using actual measured data from a distributed PV power station in a southern Chinese city to verify the effectiveness of the proposed error correction method for short-term distributed PV power prediction. The simulation results show that the proposed method presents significant superiority in enhancing the accuracy of preliminary prediction and possesses certain engineering application value.

     

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