基于SVMD-Mamba模型的分布式光伏短期功率预测误差修正方法

A method for correcting short-term power forecast errors in distributed photovoltaic systems based on sequential variational modal decomposition and the Mamba model

  • 摘要: 随着能源结构调整和双碳目标的推进,高精度分布式光伏短期功率预测对电站优化调度至关重要. 针对初步预测误差序列多尺度耦合、非平稳性强的问题,本文提出一种基于连续变分模态分解(SVMD)与Mamba模型的误差修正方法. 首先,利用SVMD对初步预测误差序列进行自适应分解,将其解耦为多个不同中心频率的模态分量,实现多尺度特征的有效分离. 然后,采用Mamba模型对各模态分量进行预测,凭借其线性复杂度的状态空间建模能力和输入自适应选择性机制,精准捕获误差序列的时序依赖关系. 最后,将预测得到的误差补偿值与初步预测功率叠加,完成修正. 以我国南方某分布式光伏电站实测数据进行验证,结果表明所提方法能有效提升初步预测精度,具备工程应用价值.

     

    Abstract: As the global energy landscape transitions toward low-carbon sources, high-precision short-term power forecasting for distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems has become increasingly critical for optimal station dispatch and grid integration. However, initial PV power forecasts inevitably contain errors arising from input data noise and model imperfections. These error sequences are typically characterized by strong non-stationarity and multi-scale feature coupling, where systematic deviations, periodic fluctuations, and high-frequency stochastic disturbances are deeply intertwined. Direct modeling of such raw error sequences often yields limited predictive accuracy because the physically meaningful and predictable components are obscured by strong stochastic noise. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a novel error-correction method based on successive variational mode decomposition (SVMD) and the Mamba model to effectively enhance the accuracy of short-term distributed PV power forecasting. The proposed approach first constructs the initial forecast error sequence by subtracting the preliminary predicted power from the actual measured power. Since different weather scenarios give rise to distinct error characteristics, the historical data are classified into three typical generation scenarios: sunny, cloudy, and overcast. For each scenario, the raw error sequence is adaptively decomposed using SVMD, which successively extracts a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different center frequencies. Unlike conventional variational mode decomposition, SVMD does not require prespecifying the number of modes; it automatically determines the optimal decomposition by adding constraints that minimize spectral overlap between the newly extracted mode and the residual signal. Low-frequency IMFs capture the slow-varying systematic bias of the initial model; mid-frequency IMFs reflect periodic error patterns linked to diurnal solar variations; and high-frequency IMFs mainly contain random noise caused by transient meteorological disturbances. To avoid subjective manual tuning, the red-billed blue magpie optimizer (RBMO) is employed to automatically identify the optimal SVMD balance parameter by minimizing the envelope entropy of the decomposed modes. After decomposition, all IMF components together with the historical error data are fed into the Mamba model for error prediction. The Mamba architecture, built upon a selective state-space model framework, offers linear computational complexity with respect to sequence length and features an input-dependent selection mechanism that dynamically adjusts state update rules according to the input content. This mechanism suppresses irrelevant noise injection during high-frequency fluctuation periods while enhancing the memory of systematic and periodic patterns, making it particularly suited for error sequences with low signal-to-noise ratios. The final corrected power forecast is obtained by superimposing the predicted error compensation value onto the initial forecast. The proposed SVMD-Mamba framework is validated using real operational data from a 90 kW distributed PV station in southern China. Experimental results across all three weather scenarios demonstrate that the method significantly enhances forecast accuracy, with the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error decreasing substantially and the coefficient of determination increasing after correction. Specifically, the RMSE reduction reaches 9.95% for sunny conditions and 10.02% for overcast conditions, with a corresponding improvement of 1.58% for cloudy conditions. The relatively smaller gain under cloudy skies is consistent with the inherently lower predictability of error sequences in that scenario, where random cloud-driven fluctuations dominate. Ablation experiments further verify that both the SVMD decomposition and the RBMO-based parameter optimization contribute independently and cumulatively to the overall performance gains. These findings indicate that the proposed method possesses strong engineering applicability as a complementary error correction module for enhancing distributed PV power predictions.

     

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