基于深度学习的某充电宝产品安全事件舆情预测研究

Deep learning-based prediction of public opinion dynamics in a power bank product safety incident

  • 摘要: 产品安全事件在社交媒体环境中易迅速演化为复杂的多维舆情传播过程,呈现出语义细粒度高、标签关联性强及动态演化显著等特征. 现有方法在细粒度语义识别及标签结构关系建模方面存在不足,制约了舆情演化分析的准确性与可解释性. 针对上述问题,本文以罗马仕充电宝安全事件的微博舆情数据为研究对象,构建多维语义人工标注数据集,提出一种融合层次语义建模与标签关系约束的深度学习模型HPLR-Net,实现多维语义的精细化识别. 在此基础上,引入折外预测(OOF)语义监测机制,并构建复合舆情风险指数(CPORI),将语义识别结果映射为日尺度聚合指标,用于舆情演化过程的动态刻画与趋势预测. 实验结果表明,HPLR-Net在主标签语义识别任务上优于多种对比模型,在困难标签识别及标签结构一致性建模方面表现突出;基于该模型构建的CPORI风险指数能够有效区分舆情发展的不同阶段,并揭示多维语义在演化过程中的耦合变化规律. 研究结果表明,所提出方法可实现产品安全事件舆情的细粒度识别与动态预测,兼顾模型性能与可解释性,为监管部门风险预警与企业危机响应提供了有效的技术支撑.

     

    Abstract: Product safety incidents on social media often evolve rapidly into complex and multidimensional public opinion crises. These crises are reflected not only in rising online attention but also in fine-grained semantic signals, including risk perceptions, public concerns, responsibility attribution, official responses, emotional intensity, and collective mobilization. Existing public opinion monitoring methods primarily rely on coarse sentiment polarity, keyword frequency, or simple propagation indicators, which limits their ability to capture the semantic complexity and dynamic evolution of product safety crises. In addition, conventional multi-label text classification methods generally treat labels as independent categories, which makes it difficult to model hierarchical relations and co-occurrence constraints among crisis-related labels. As a result, both the predictive accuracy and the interpretability of public opinion risk analysis remain limited. To address these challenges, this study uses Weibo data from a Romoss power bank safety incident as an empirical case and constructs a manually annotated multidimensional semantic dataset for product safety public opinion analysis. Building on this foundation, this study proposes a deep learning model, HPLR-Net, which integrates hierarchy-aware prompt modeling, label-query representation, and lightweight label re-ranking. This architecture enables the accurate identification of key semantic categories while preserving consistency among related labels. The model focuses on a set of learnable primary labels, including Risk, Doubt, Mobilize, Official, and Corp.doubt, and further incorporates emotional intensity and attitude recognition to provide a more comprehensive characterization of public opinion dynamics. To connect post-level semantic recognition with temporal risk analysis, this study further introduces an out-of-fold semantic monitoring mechanism. The predicted probabilities of the main semantic labels are aggregated by date and combined with raw propagation statistics, including posting volume and comments, to construct a composite public opinion risk index (CPORI). The index follows a semantic-priority weighting scheme in which risk descriptions, public doubts, and emotional intensity are given primary importance, while posting volume and comments are incorporated as indicators or propagation intensity following logarithmic transformation. An analytic hierarchy process and weight sensitivity analysis are used to examine the interpretability and robustness of the weighting scheme. Experimental results show that HPLR-Net outperforms several baseline models in the main-label semantic recognition task and has particular advantages for difficult labels and label-structure consistency. The CPORI series effectively captures the outbreak, escalation, and decline stages of the crisis, and its high-risk days show good temporal alignment with external event anchors. The results further indicate that the decline of public attention does not necessarily mean the simultaneous restoration of risk perception or public trust because Risk, Doubt, and negative attitude signals may remain elevated after posting volume has decreased. To examine the transferability of the proposed workflow, the trained HPLR-Net and the same CPORI construction procedure are also applied to Weibo posts related to the Samsung Note7 battery explosion incident. The external-event application shows that the method can generate an interpretable daily risk curve for another consumer electronics safety incident without retraining the model. Overall, this study provides an integrated framework for fine-grained semantic recognition, composite risk index construction, and dynamic trend interpretation in product safety public opinion monitoring. The findings offer practical support for regulatory early warning, enterprise crisis management, and public safety risk governance in social media environments.

     

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