基于LimiX大模型的WRF-Solar辐照度模拟与订正研究

Research on WRF-Solar Irradiance Simulation and Bias Correction Based on the LimiX Large Model

  • 摘要: 为评估不同再分析资料驱动WRF-Solar在复杂地形光伏电站辐照度模拟中的适用性,同时考虑不同数据驱动源的不确定性,本文利用中尺度模式WRF-Solar v4.3,分别以ECMWF-ERA5、NCEP-FNL和CMA-RA作为初始场,对云南某光伏电站进行动力降尺度模拟试验,从不同时间尺度、天气类型和辐照强度分箱等层面系统比较三套驱动资料的模拟表现,在此基础上构建了基于LimiX的站点尺度辐照度订正模型。结果显示:(1)三套资料均可再现年辐照度基本变化,ERA5、FNL和CMA-RA的R分别为0.73、0.71和0.65,RMSE分别为225.86、226.60和245.00 W·m-2,ERA5综合表现最优,CMA-RA在相关性与综合误差指标上相对偏弱;(2)三套方案均表现出明显季节差异,冬季相关性较高、误差较低,春季误差最为显著;(3)天气类型上,晴天条件下模拟效果最好,多云次之,阴雨条件下误差显著增大,表明云相关过程对辐照度模拟精度具有重要影响;(4)辐照度分箱结果显示,三套方案的RMSE在200~300 W·m-2区间达到峰值,表明误差主要集中于中低辐照强度范围,并呈现“低辐照正偏、高辐照负偏”的系统性偏差特征;(5)结构化的LimiX订正模型显示出优异的站点尺度辐照度偏差订正性能,测试期内,ERMSE由36.58%降至29.27%,R和IOA分别提高至0.90和0.92。综合来看,ERA5作为该光伏电站WRF-Solar驱动资料的稳定性与综合适用性最优,在此基础上结合LimiX后处理订正,可进一步削弱站点尺度系统性偏差,提高辐照度模拟精度。该研究可为复杂地形区光伏辐照度数值模拟、驱动资料优选及站点尺度订正提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To evaluate the applicability of WRF-Solar driven by different reanalysis datasets for irradiance simulation at a photovoltaic power station in complex terrain, and to account for the uncertainty associated with different driving data sources, this study used the mesoscale model WRF-Solar v4.3 to conduct dynamical downscaling simulations for a photovoltaic power station in Yunnan Province. ECMWF-ERA5, NCEP-FNL, and CMA-RA were used as the initial fields, respectively. The simulation performance of the three driving datasets was systematically compared at different temporal scales, under different weather types, and across irradiance intensity bins. On this basis, a station-scale irradiance correction model based on LimiX was constructed. The results show that: (1) all three datasets can reproduce the basic annual variation in irradiance. The correlation coefficients of ERA5, FNL, and CMA-RA are 0.73, 0.71, and 0.65, respectively, and their RMSE values are 225.86, 226.60, and 245.00 W·m-2, respectively. ERA5 shows the best overall performance, whereas CMA-RA is relatively weaker in terms of correlation and comprehensive error metrics. (2) The three schemes show obvious seasonal differences. The correlation is higher and the error is lower in winter, whereas the error is most significant in spring. (3) In terms of weather types, the simulation performance is best under clear-sky conditions, followed by cloudy conditions, while the error increases significantly under rainy conditions. This indicates that cloud-related processes have an important influence on irradiance simulation accuracy. (4) The irradiance binning results show that the RMSE values of the three schemes peak in the range of 200-300 W·m-2, indicating that the errors are mainly concentrated in the low-to-medium irradiance range. The simulations also show a systematic bias characterized by positive bias under low irradiance and negative bias under high irradiance. (5) The structured LimiX correction model shows excellent station-scale irradiance bias correction performance. During the test period, ERMSE decreases from 36.58% to 29.27%, and R and IOA increase to 0.90 and 0.92, respectively. Overall, ERA5 shows the best stability and overall applicability as the WRF-Solar driving dataset for the photovoltaic power station. Combining ERA5-driven WRF-Solar simulations with LimiX post-processing correction can further reduce station-scale systematic bias and improve irradiance simulation accuracy. This study provides a reference for numerical simulation of photovoltaic irradiance, selection of driving datasets, and station-scale correction in complex terrain regions.

     

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