深部初始地应力场反演中水平应力梯度表征与工况共线性问题研究—以罗河铁矿为例

* 通信作者,E-mail: renfh_2001@163.com; wangpeitao@ustb.edu.cn

  • 摘要: 针对水压致裂约束分量有限、均布压缩单位工况难以表征深部水平应力梯度特征,以及引入梯度压缩单位工况后易产生多重共线性的问题,以罗河铁矿-600 m水平以下3个钻孔20个有效测段为研究对象,基于实测结果构建反演观测向量,设置由自重、双向均布压缩和水平面内剪切构成的4工况组合,增设双向梯度压缩单位工况形成6工况组合,开展初始地应力反演。采用Pearson相关系数和方差膨胀因子分析单位工况响应相关性,利用岭回归提高组合系数求解稳定性,并结合留一交叉验证评价反演结果的可靠性。结果表明:4工况组合虽能较好恢复水平主应力总体量级,但反演得到的水平主应力随埋深变化趋势与实测结果不一致;6工况组合反演得到的水平主应力呈随埋深增加而增大的变化趋势,但同向均布压缩与梯度压缩响应高度相关,最大方差膨胀因子达到531.75,导致相应组合系数求解不稳定。经岭回归求解后,6工况组合的水平主应力综合误差和留一交叉验证综合误差分别为11.17%和12.09%;反演得到的最大、最小水平主应力均随埋深增加而增大,变化方向与实测结果一致,但应力梯度幅值仍低于实测值,表明该组合能够改善水平主应力随埋深变化趋势的表征,并具有较好的反演精度和预测稳定性。研究表明,在深部初始地应力反演中增设梯度压缩单位工况有助于改善水平应力随埋深变化规律的再现效果,但需同时考虑其与均布压缩单位工况之间的响应相关性,以提高组合系数求解稳定性和反演结果可靠性。研究结果可为类似矿山初始地应力反演的工况设置与稳定求解提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To address the limited stress components constrained by hydraulic fracturing measurements, the difficulty of uniform-compression unit load cases in characterizing the burial-depth-dependent gradients of deep horizontal stresses, and the multicollinearity that may arise after introducing gradient-compression unit load cases, 20 valid test intervals from three boreholes below the -600 m level of the Luohe Iron Mine were investigated. An inversion observation vector was constructed from the measured data. A four-load-case combination consisting of self-weight, bidirectional uniform compression, and horizontal in-plane shear was established, and bidirectional gradient-compression unit load cases were further introduced to form a six-load-case combination for initial in-situ stress inversion. Pearson correlation coefficients and variance inflation factors were used to analyze the correlations among unit-load-case responses, ridge regression was employed to improve the stability of combination-coefficient estimation, and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was adopted to evaluate the reliability of the inversion results. The results show that the four-load-case combination can reasonably reproduce the overall magnitudes of the horizontal principal stresses, but the burial-depth-dependent trends of the inverted stresses are inconsistent with the measured results. In contrast, the horizontal principal stresses obtained using the six-load-case combination increase with burial depth; however, the responses of the uniform- and gradient-compression load cases in the same direction are highly correlated, with a maximum variance inflation factor of 531.75, resulting in unstable estimation of the corresponding combination coefficients. After ridge-regression estimation, the comprehensive horizontal-principal-stress error and the comprehensive LOOCV error of the six-load-case combination are 11.17% and 12.09%, respectively. Both the maximum and minimum horizontal principal stresses increase with burial depth, showing the same variation direction as the measured results, although the inverted stress-gradient values remain lower than the measured values. This indicates that the six-load-case combination improves the characterization of the burial-depth-dependent variation of horizontal principal stresses while maintaining good inversion accuracy and predictive stability. The results demonstrate that introducing gradient-compression unit load cases into deep initial in-situ stress inversion can improve the characterization of the depth-dependent variation of horizontal stresses; however, the response correlations between the gradient- and uniform-compression load cases should be taken into account to improve the stability of combination-coefficient estimation and the reliability of the inversion results. These findings provide a reference for load-case configuration and stable solution of initial in-situ stress inversion in similar mines.

     

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