基于有向权值网络的航班运行风险传播与控制
摘要: 为了分析航班运行风险传播过程,进而有效控制保障飞行安全,基于复杂网络理论,首先参照民航局咨询通告选取机组、航空器、运行环境共29个终端因素作为网络节点,统计民航安全监察记录,根据事件中节点关系,构建无向网络;统计前后节点间的作用关系和发生概率,提出一种有向带权的航班运行风险网络;然后,引入改进感染率和改进恢复率概念,构建一种适用于航班运行风险传播分析的改进SIR模型;定义感染起始范围,最后采取多参数控制方式,对有向与无向网络传播和控制进行大规模仿真计算。结果表明:有向网的平均最短路径为1.788,属于小世界网络;使用民航常规管控措施,有向网节点感染下降幅度相比无向网络高出13.7%;对总度值和入度值排序前3节点控制后,感染节点峰值下降率高达50.6%。结果证实在有向带权值网络中,根据入度值控制节点对抑制风险传播最为有效。
Flight Operation Risk Propagation and Control Based on Directional-weighted Complex Network
- Available Online:
2020-11-14
Abstract: In order to analyze and study the flight operations risk propagation, and then effectively control flight safety, based on the complex network theory, a total of 29 terminal factors including crew, aircraft, and operating environment were selected as network nodes according to the Civil Aviation Administration's advisory notice firstly. Civil aviation safety monitoring records were counted, and an undirected network was constructed based on the node relationships. The relationships and occurrence probability between the nodes were counted, and a directed and weighted network was constructed. The concepts of improved infection rate and improved recovery rate were introduced, an improved SIR model suitable for flight operation risks was proposed. Finally, the initial infection range was clearly defined, and a multi-parameter control method was adopted. For directed and undirected networks, large-scale propagation and control simulations were calculated. The results indicate that the average shortest path of the directed network was 1.788, which belonged to the small-world network. The directed network infection node decreased 13.7% with the conventional control measures, higher than that of the undirected network. After 3 nodes control, the infected nodes peak drop rate was as high as 50.6%. The results confirm that nodes controlling based on the entry degree value is the most effective to suppress risk propagation in the directed and weighted network.