唐梁鸿绪, 王卫苹, 王昊, 员曼曼, 罗熊, 李建武. 新冠疫情下的SEIRD时滞性谣言传播模型及辟谣策略[J]. 工程科学学报, 2022, 44(6): 1080-1089. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005
引用本文: 唐梁鸿绪, 王卫苹, 王昊, 员曼曼, 罗熊, 李建武. 新冠疫情下的SEIRD时滞性谣言传播模型及辟谣策略[J]. 工程科学学报, 2022, 44(6): 1080-1089. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005
TANG Liang-hong-xu, WANG Wei-ping, WANG Hao, YUAN Man-man, LUO Xiong, LI Jian-wu. Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2022, 44(6): 1080-1089. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005
Citation: TANG Liang-hong-xu, WANG Wei-ping, WANG Hao, YUAN Man-man, LUO Xiong, LI Jian-wu. Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2022, 44(6): 1080-1089. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005

新冠疫情下的SEIRD时滞性谣言传播模型及辟谣策略

Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19

  • 摘要: 随着互联网的发展与新冠疫情的蔓延,疫情相关谣言的流量与受关注度大大提高,使其能够迅速发酵并造成极其不良的社会影响。由此可见,研究网络谣言的传播过程并给出遏制网络谣言传播的策略有着重大意义。在传统网络谣言传播SIR(Susceptible, infected, recovered)模型的基础上加入潜在信谣者与铁杆信谣者群体,引入政府辟谣机制,同时考虑辟谣者与政府辟谣的滞后性以及高等教育普及率对谣言传播及辟谣过程的影响,建立了SEIRD(Susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, die-hard-infected)谣言传播模型,以研究一个网络谣言自诞生起,不知情者、潜在信谣者、信谣者、铁杆信谣者以及醒悟者这五类网民比例在有无政府辟谣、辟谣是否具有滞后性、以及网民不同比例高等教育率下的变化规律,并通过实验仿真验证了模型的有效性,为控制网络舆情传播提供参考。此外,还提出了用于衡量辟谣者群体及政府权威机构辟谣能力的辟谣系数。研究结果表明,提高高等教育普及率对于减缓谣言传播、降低谣言传播峰值有着显著效果;政府权威机构辟谣对于最终彻底消灭谣言起决定性作用;消灭辟谣的滞后性对于减缓网络谣言传播同样有极大帮助。为此,还提出了一种未来可能的消灭辟谣滞后性的网络谣言抑制策略。

     

    Abstract: With the increasing popularity of the Internet and the spread of COVID-19, epidemic-related rumors have attracted significant attention, allowing them to brew quickly and pose extremely negative social impacts. It is of great significance to investigate the propagation process of online rumors and offer tentative strategies to curb it. Based on the traditional susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) model of online rumor propagation, groups of potential and die-hard rumor believers were introduced in this paper, establishing an authoritative rumor-refuting mechanism. Meanwhile, this paper considered factors such as the time-lag effect of rumor refutation from the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions and the impact of the popularizing rate of higher education on the propagation and refutation of rumors. As a result of the process, the SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, die-hard-infected) rumor propagation model was established to study how the proportion of the susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and die-hard-infected varies under different popularizing rates of higher education, the presence or absence of the authoritative rumor-refuting institutions, and the time-lag effect of rumor refutation. Finally, the model’s effectiveness was verified via experimental simulation, which provided a reference for controlling the spread of online rumor propagation. In addition, the paper proposed a rumor-refuting coefficient to measure the rumor-refuting ability of the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions. The results show that (1) increasing popularizing rate of higher education significantly slows down the rumor propagation and reduces the rumor propagation peak; (2) refuting the rumors based on the authoritative institutions is decisive for the ultimate elimination of rumors; and (3) eliminating the time-lag effect in refuting rumors facilitates slowing down the propagation of the online rumors. Therefore, the paper puts forward a feasible strategy to eliminate the time-lag effect of online rumor refutation in the future.

     

/

返回文章
返回