刘振路, 郭军红, 李薇, 贾宏涛, 陈卓. 基于FCM−LSTM的光热发电出力短期预测[J]. 工程科学学报, 2024, 46(1): 178-186. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.02.24.001
引用本文: 刘振路, 郭军红, 李薇, 贾宏涛, 陈卓. 基于FCM−LSTM的光热发电出力短期预测[J]. 工程科学学报, 2024, 46(1): 178-186. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.02.24.001
LIU Zhenlu, GUO Junhong, LI Wei, JIA Hongtao, CHEN Zhuo. Short-term prediction of concentrating solar power based on FCM–LSTM[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2024, 46(1): 178-186. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.02.24.001
Citation: LIU Zhenlu, GUO Junhong, LI Wei, JIA Hongtao, CHEN Zhuo. Short-term prediction of concentrating solar power based on FCM–LSTM[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2024, 46(1): 178-186. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.02.24.001

基于FCM−LSTM的光热发电出力短期预测

Short-term prediction of concentrating solar power based on FCM–LSTM

  • 摘要: 对光热电站的出力进行短期预测,可以有效应对太阳能随机性和波动性带来的影响,为电网调度做好准备. 该文以青海某光热电站为例,首先使用模糊C均值聚类算法对预处理后的实验数据进行分类,然后通过分析不同聚类类型下出力和气象数据中各因子间的关联程度,充分挖掘出数据间的关系,确定不同类型预测模型的输入变量,进而构建出不同类别下的长短期记忆神经网络预测模型. 结果表明,与传统长短期记忆神经网络模型、BP神经网络模型、支持向量机模型和随机森林模型的预测结果相比,基于模糊C均值聚类的长短期记忆神经网络预测模型效果良好,大幅减少了预测误差,验证了该预测模型的有效性.

     

    Abstract: In China, the development of concentrated solar power has gained momentum to harness the country’s abundant solar energy resources. Predicting the short-term power generation capacity of concentrated solar power stations is crucial for mitigating the impact of the randomness and volatility of solar energy and facilitating effective grid dispatching. To solve this problem, this study presents a short-term concentrated solar power prediction combination model based on fuzzy C-means clustering. Fuzzy C-means clustering is an objective function–based fuzzy clustering algorithm that yields more flexible clustering results by incorporating fuzzy theory. Using a concentrated solar power station in Qinghai as an example, this study employs cubic spline interpolation to preprocess experimental data and divide the data into training and testing sets. Subsequently, a fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm is used to classify the preprocessed data. Different forecast scenarios are established, enhancing the precision of the prediction model. The relationship between the data is fully explored by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient between meteorological factors and each factor in the output data under different types. Based on the degree of correlation between the factors, the input variables of different prediction submodels are determined. The influence of various meteorological factors on the prediction model under different scenarios was fully considered. Additionally, the neural network prediction model of long short-term memory in different scenarios is constructed. The test set is used to evaluate the accuracy of the combined model, and the membership degree of each sample group is determined by calculating their distance from different cluster centers to divide the test data and classify them into different scenarios. Consequently, the combined prediction model is tested. To fully confirm the feasibility and accuracy of the combined model, the test results are compared with the prediction results of the traditional long short-term memory neural network model, BP neural network model, support vector machines, and random forest. Results demonstrate that the long short-term memory neural network prediction model based on fuzzy C-means clustering has a good effect, which considerably reduces prediction error and closely aligns with actual output compared to the other two prediction models. Therefore, this model can provide a reference for power grid dispatching, effectively capturing the influence between weather factors and concentrated solar power and proving the applicability and effectiveness of the combined prediction model in different scenarios.

     

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