考虑非线性蠕变的露天矿边坡预警阈值确定

Determination of early warning threshold of open pit slope considering nonlinear creep

  • 摘要: 露天矿边坡监测作为保障人员与设备安全的最后一道防线,其核心在于构建精准的预警阈值。当前我国露天矿边坡监测系统存在预警阈值设定缺乏系统性和阈值确定缺乏科学理论支撑。对此,本研究提出基于蠕变理论的预警方法:围绕蠕变曲线发展规律与累计位移量变化特征,通过解析边坡蠕变三阶段的临界位移比例关系来确定预警值。先以模拟方式获取应力-应变曲线,求出蠕变所需的弹性模量和黏度系数,再建立蠕变方程推导出位移比例关系式。基于模拟的蠕变曲线得出方程所需的关键点及三级蠕变的起点值,结合锁固段与重正化群理论确定临界位移阈值,进而求出蠕变演化的四级预警值,并与GNSS监测数据进行对比验证其准确性。对于突发的异常变形,引入切线角判据完善预警机制。试验表明,以露天矿C预警阈值为例,蠕变发出Ⅰ级预警(6216mm)至滑坡发生提前了11.6天,之后进行短期的变形速率预警阈值监测,当变形速率发出Ⅰ级预警(97.2mm·d-)后3小时发生滑坡。通过长短周期预警的协同作用,提升了预警系统的准确性和可靠性。

     

    Abstract: As the last line of defense to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment, the core of open-pit mine slope monitoring lies in establishing accurate early warning thresholds. Currently, in China's open-pit mine slope monitoring systems, there are issues of lacking a systematic approach to setting early warning thresholds and lacking scientific theoretical support for threshold determination. To address this, this study proposes an early warning method based on creep theory: by focusing on the development patterns of creep curves and the variation characteristics of cumulative displacement, the early warning thresholds are determined through analyzing the proportional relationships of critical displacements in the three stages of slope creep. First, obtain the stress-strain curve through simulation, calculate the elastic modulus and viscosity coefficient required for creep analysis, and then establish a creep equation to derive the displacement proportional relationship. Based on the simulated creep curve, the key points required for the equation and the starting values of tertiary creep are obtained. By combining the theory of locked segments and renormalization group, the critical displacement threshold is determined, thereby deriving the four-level early warning thresholds for creep evolution. These thresholds are then compared with GNSS monitoring data to verify their accuracy. For sudden abnormal deformation, the tangent angle criterion is introduced to improve the early warning mechanism. Tests show that, taking the early warning threshold of open-pit mine C as an example, the monitoring system issued a Level I warning (6216 mm) 11.6 days in advance of landslide occurrence . Subsequently, short-term monitoring of the deformation rate early warning threshold was carried out: after the system issued a Level I warning based on the deformation rate (97.2 mm?d?1), the landslide occurred 3 hours later. Through the synergy of long and short-term early warnings, the accuracy and reliability of the early warning system have been improved.

     

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