面向风电场运行的WRF短期风速分段混合订正方法

Error-Aware Segmented Hybrid Correction for WRF Wind-Speed Forecasts

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变化加剧和能源结构加速转型背景下,风电作为清洁低碳的可再生能源,已成为新型电力系统的重要支撑,在保障能源安全和实现碳中和目标中发挥着关键作用。风速是风电功率预测的核心影响因子,提高风速预测的准确性对于优化风能利用和提升风电场运行效率具有重要意义。然而,受风速的随机性和不稳定性影响,精准预报仍面临较大挑战。本文基于数值天气预报WRF模式对我国甘肃某风电场的风速开展短期预报,在分风速段框架下引入概率密度匹配(PDF)、门控循环单元(GRU)与K近邻(KNN)三种互补混合订正器,据此提出基于误差感知的分段混合订正(Segmented Error-aware Hybrid Correction,SEHC)框架,对WRF预报风速进行订正并评估其适用性。结果表明,SEHC相对WRF的MAE下降约80%,箱线离散与尾部分位显著收敛,在3,10 m s-1风速段精度提升最显著,同时在高风尾段有效压缩极端偏差与越限风险。与既有整体订正或经验分段策略不同,SEHC以误差诊断驱动的段内有针对性订正,兼具物理可解释性与统计可验证性,该框架可为风电场精细化风速预报提供技术支撑,并为风电功率预测和电网调度提供重要参考。

     

    Abstract: In the context of accelerating global climate change and an expedited energy transition, wind power—being a clean and low-carbon renewable resource—has become a key pillar of new-type power systems and plays a crucial role in safeguarding energy security and achieving carbon neutrality. Wind speed is the core determinant of wind-power forecasting; improving wind-speed prediction accuracy is therefore essential for optimizing wind-energy utilization and enhancing wind-farm operational efficiency. Nevertheless, owing to the stochastic and unstable nature of wind speed, precise forecasting remains challenging. This study conducts short-term wind-speed forecasts for a wind farm in Gansu, China, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. Within a segmented wind-speed framework, we introduce three complementary correctors—probability density function matching (PDF), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and k-nearest neighbors (KNN)—and thereby propose a Segmented Error-aware Hybrid Correction (SEHC) framework to post-process WRF wind-speed forecasts and evaluate its applicability. Results show that, relative to raw WRF output, SEHC reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) by approximately 80%, markedly contracts box-plot dispersion and tail quantiles, and delivers the most pronounced accuracy gains in the 3–10 m s-1 wind-speed range. In the high-wind tail, SEHC effectively suppresses extreme biases and limit-exceedance risks. Unlike prior global corrections or empirically defined segmentation strategies, SEHC performs error-diagnosis-driven, targeted within-segment corrections, combining physical interpretability with statistical verifiability. The proposed framework provides technical support for fine-scale wind-speed forecasting and offers valuable guidance for wind-power prediction and power-system dispatching.

     

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