特刊邀稿:公共安全+AI 基于深度学习的某充电宝产品安全事件舆情预测研究

Deep Learning–Based Prediction of Public Opinion Dynamics in a Power Bank Product Safety Incident

  • 摘要: 产品安全事件在社交媒体环境中易迅速演化为复杂的多维舆情传播过程,呈现出语义细粒度高、标签关联性强及动态演化显著等特征。现有方法在细粒度语义识别及标签结构关系建模方面存在不足,制约了舆情演化分析的准确性与可解释性。针对上述问题,本文以罗马仕充电宝安全事件的微博舆情数据为研究对象,构建多维语义人工标注数据集,提出一种融合层次语义建模与标签关系约束的深度学习模型HPLR-Net,实现多维语义的精细化识别。在此基础上,引入OFF语义监测机制,并构建CPORI风险指数,将语义识别结果映射为日尺度聚合指标,用于舆情演化过程的动态刻画与趋势预测。实验结果表明,HPLR-Net在主标签语义识别任务上优于多种对比模型,在困难标签识别及标签结构一致性建模方面表现突出;基于该模型构建的CPORI风险指数能够有效区分舆情发展的不同阶段,并揭示多维语义在演化过程中的耦合变化规律。研究结果表明,所提出方法可实现产品安全事件舆情的细粒度识别与动态预测,兼顾模型性能与可解释性,为监管部门风险预警与企业危机响应提供了有效的技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Product safety incidents on social media tend to rapidly evolve into complex, multidimensional public opinion dissemination processes, characterized by fine-grained semantics, strong inter-label correlations, and dynamic evolution. Existing methods are limited in their ability to capture fine-grained semantic features and model label structural relationships, thereby constraining the accuracy and interpretability of public opinion evolution analysis. To address these challenges, this study takes the Weibo data from a power bank safety incident involving Romoss as the research object, constructs a manually annotated multidimensional semantic dataset, and proposes a deep learning model, HPLR-Net, which integrates hierarchical semantic modeling with label relationship constraints to achieve fine-grained semantic recognition. Building upon this, an OFF semantic monitoring mechanism is introduced, and a CPORI risk index is developed to transform semantic recognition outputs into daily aggregated indicators for dynamic characterization and trend prediction of public opinion evolution. Experimental results demonstrate that HPLR-Net outperforms multiple baseline models in primary label semantic recognition tasks, showing notable advantages in handling difficult labels and maintaining label structural consistency. Furthermore, the CPORI risk index effectively distinguishes different stages of public opinion development and reveals the coupling dynamics of multidimensional semantics throughout the evolution process. The findings indicate that the proposed approach enables fine-grained identification and dynamic prediction of public opinion in product safety incidents, balancing model performance and interpretability, and providing effective technical support for regulatory risk warning and enterprise crisis response.

     

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