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三维确定性模型在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的应用

辛星 张帆宇

辛星, 张帆宇. 三维确定性模型在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的应用[J]. 工程科学学报, 2018, 40(4): 397-406. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2018.04.002
引用本文: 辛星, 张帆宇. 三维确定性模型在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的应用[J]. 工程科学学报, 2018, 40(4): 397-406. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2018.04.002
XIN Xing, ZHANG Fan-yu. Application of a 3D deterministic model for predicting shallow loess landslide stability[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2018, 40(4): 397-406. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2018.04.002
Citation: XIN Xing, ZHANG Fan-yu. Application of a 3D deterministic model for predicting shallow loess landslide stability[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2018, 40(4): 397-406. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2018.04.002

三维确定性模型在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的应用

doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2018.04.002
基金项目: 

国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(41402240)

兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(lzujbky-2017-k19)

973国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2014CB744701)

详细信息
  • 中图分类号: P642.2

Application of a 3D deterministic model for predicting shallow loess landslide stability

  • 摘要: 浅层黄土滑坡是黄土高原广泛分布和频繁发生的地质灾害,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失.尽管二维确定性模型已被广泛用于浅层滑坡稳定性预测,但不能充分考虑岩土性质、地层结构、地下水等条件的三维空间变化,这可能与实际的斜坡稳定性不相符.因此,利用能考虑复杂斜坡环境的三维确定性模型评价滑坡稳定性,对获取更真实的评价结果以及指导滑坡防治工作具有重要意义.本文利用Scoops3D三维确定性模型评价了在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的适应性和可靠性.首先,模型计算参数敏感性的分析发现黏聚力、滑动视倾角和栅格单元重量对安全系数准确度影响较大,并用于指导获取详细的关键参数.然后,选取不同分辨率的数字高程模型(DEM)数据,利用Scoops3D模型对典型黄土沟壑中的浅层黄土滑坡稳定性进行预测,并通过详细的点状和面状滑坡分布图与预测结果的对比发现,该模型对黄土沟壑区的浅层滑坡稳定性预测准确度较高,且点状滑坡分布图可能更适合模型适应性的检验.最后,混淆矩阵法和成功率曲线法对不同分辨率数字高程模型预测结果可靠性的检验显示,该模型能够有效地预测黄土浅层滑坡的稳定性,且在高分辨率数字高程模型数据下可以获得可靠的预测精度.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-04-07

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