马帅印, 高丽丽, 殷磊, 孔宪光, 崔鹏浩, 张茜, 胥军. 基于SSA-LSTM的转炉炼钢终点锰含量预测研究[J]. 工程科学学报. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.10.18.004
引用本文: 马帅印, 高丽丽, 殷磊, 孔宪光, 崔鹏浩, 张茜, 胥军. 基于SSA-LSTM的转炉炼钢终点锰含量预测研究[J]. 工程科学学报. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.10.18.004
Prediction of manganese content at the end point of converter steelmaking based on SSA-LSTM[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.10.18.004
Citation: Prediction of manganese content at the end point of converter steelmaking based on SSA-LSTM[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.10.18.004

基于SSA-LSTM的转炉炼钢终点锰含量预测研究

Prediction of manganese content at the end point of converter steelmaking based on SSA-LSTM

  • 摘要: 锰是钢中重要的合金元素,加入适量锰元素不但能改善冶炼操作,还能改善铁的性能。为满足钢种成分要求,需在出钢过程进行锰铁合金补加。因此,转炉炼钢终点锰含量预测对原料添加和冶炼成本优化具有重要作用。针对转炉炼钢终点锰预测过程中含有噪声和单一预测方法精度较低等问题,探索了一个转炉炼钢终点锰含量预测研究架构,建立了长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)终点锰含量预测模型,并引入奇异谱分析(Singular Spectral Analysis, SSA)方法去除终点锰预测过程中非线性、非平稳序列的高频噪声,提出了一种基于SSA-LSTM的终点锰含量预测方法。利用河北敬业集团转炉炼钢生产数据验证所提预测方法的平均绝对误差为1.19%,均方根误差为1.48%。结果表明,该方法能够解决存在较多噪声及单一方法预测效果不稳定等问题;与未经SSA处理的时间序列预测方法相比,经过SSA的时间序列的预测误差均有所减小,充分证明了该方法的有效性,对实际生产过程中精准加入合金提供了依据。

     

    Abstract: Manganese is an important alloying element in steel, adding the right amount of manganese can not only improve the smelting operation, but also improve the performance of iron. In order to meet the steel grade composition requirements, manganese and iron alloy additions need to be made during the steel making operation. Therefore, manganese content prediction at the end of converter steelmaking plays an important role in raw material addition and smelting cost optimization. To address the problems of noise in the prediction of nonlinear time series data and low accuracy of a single prediction method, this paper proposes a method of end-point manganese content prediction based on Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The mean absolute error of the proposed prediction method was 1.19% and the mean squared heel error was 1.48% using the converter steel production data of Hebei Jingye Group. The results show that the method can solve the problems such as the existence of more noise and the unstable prediction effect of a single method; compared with the time series prediction method without SSA processing, the prediction errors of the time series with SSA are reduced, which fully proves the effectiveness of the method.

     

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