贾宏涛, 王小萱, 汪月新, 李薇, 丁一, 郭军红(通讯作者). Copula分位数回归方法在风电超短期出力预测上的应用[J]. 工程科学学报. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.12.15.003
引用本文: 贾宏涛, 王小萱, 汪月新, 李薇, 丁一, 郭军红(通讯作者). Copula分位数回归方法在风电超短期出力预测上的应用[J]. 工程科学学报. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.12.15.003
Application of Copula Quantile Regression Method in Wind Power Ultra Short Term Output Prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.12.15.003
Citation: Application of Copula Quantile Regression Method in Wind Power Ultra Short Term Output Prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2023.12.15.003

Copula分位数回归方法在风电超短期出力预测上的应用

Application of Copula Quantile Regression Method in Wind Power Ultra Short Term Output Prediction

  • 摘要: 风电出力具有较强的随机性和波动性,相比于传统预测,分位数预测方法能够提供全面的风电功率概率分布信息,可实现更可靠的风电出力预报,对电网系统的安全和稳定运行具有重要意义。本文以甘肃某风电站为案例,将数据按8:2划分为训练集和测试集,采用基于Copula的分位数回归方法(QCopula)进行功率区间预测,并与三个传统的分位数回归方法进行比较。结果显示,在不同置信区间下QCopula的修正预测区间精度范围在0.701~0.773之间,平均比QR、QRF和QLSTM分别高出15%、9%和13%,优于其他三种分位数预测方法。分位数交叉验证中,QCopula未出现分位数交叉,每个样本点的功率预测值均随概率值单调递增,而QR、QRF、QLSTM均出现不同程度的分位数交叉现象。综上所述,QCopula可以表征更小的区间宽度和更高的区间覆盖率,且分位数曲线不存在交叉,可信度较高。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the proportion of renewable energy generation in China's power industry has been increasing, and the installed capacity has surpassed that of coal-fired power. However, wind power output has strong randomness and volatility. Compared with traditional prediction, quantile prediction methods can provide comprehensive probability distribution information of wind power and achieve more reliable wind power output prediction, which is of great significance for the safe and stable operation of the power grid system. A quantile regression method based on Copula (QCopula) is proposed to address this issue. The advantage of Copula function is that it can describe the correlation between the marginal distribution function of random variables and the joint distribution function between variables. Firstly, the optimal Copula function is determined using the AIC criterion. Based on the correlation between wind power and wind speed described by the Copula function, the conditional probability distribution function of power is expressed. Secondly, by taking different conditional probability values, wind power prediction results at different quantiles are obtained, and then interval prediction results with different confidence intervals are obtained. These results are compared with three traditional quantile regression methods (QR, QRF, QLSTM), And three indicators, PICP, PINAW, and CPIA, were used to evaluate the interval prediction results of the four quantile regression methods. Finally, the crossover of quantile curves for each method was analyzed. This article takes a wind power plant in Gansu Province as a case study, with wind speed and power data (in MW, with an interval of 15 minutes) from September 2022 to June 2023. There are a total of 29088 sample points, and the data is divided into training and testing sets in an 8:2 ratio. The training set is used to establish models using various quantile regression methods, and the testing set is used to verify the accuracy of each model. The results showed that under different confidence intervals, the accuracy range of QCopula's modified prediction interval was between 0.701 and 0.773, with an average of 15%, 9%, and 13% higher than QR, QRF, and QLSTM, respectively, and better than the other three quantile prediction methods. In quantile cross validation, QCopula did not exhibit quantile cross validation, and the predicted power values for each sample point monotonically increased with probability. However, QR, QRF, and QLSTM all exhibited varying degrees of quantile cross validation. In summary, QCopula can characterize smaller interval widths and higher interval coverage, and the quantile curve does not cross, resulting in higher reliability.

     

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