Discussion on the future development trend of China's iron and steel industry under the background of double carbon

The iron and steel industry is an important area for green and low-carbon development, and it is of great significance to explore the low-carbon transformation path of the iron and steel industry from a strategic level. In this paper, a forecast model for crude steel output, scrap steel resource output, carbon emissions, ferrous resource structure, production process structure, and energy consumption structure in the steel industry is constructed, and three scenarios are set up to explore the low-carbon transformation path of the steel industry from a strategic perspective. The research results indicate that with the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, the total output of crude steel in China will decrease year by year, and is expected to drop to 600-700 million tons in 2060. With the continuous increase in social steel accumulation, the output of scrap steel resources will grow rapidly, and is expected to reach a peak around 2045, at about 500-600 million tons. With the rational application of various carbon reduction measures, the industry's CO2 emissions will steadily decline year by year, and it is estimated that in 2060 the steel industry will still have remaining CO2 emissions of about 90-190 million tons. At this time, the "carbon neutrality" goal can be achieved through technologies such as CCUS and carbon sinks. In addition, it is expected that in 2060, China's iron ore resource consumption will be reduced by 65%~77% on the basis of 2023, and the consumption of scrap steel resources will increase by 0.90~0.97 times; the proportion of blast furnace-converter process will be adjusted to 15%~30%, the proportion of full-scrap electric furnace process will be increased to 40%~50%, and the proportion of hydrogen reduction-electric furnace process will be increased to 28%~34%; coal resource consumption will be reduced by 76%~89%, electricity resource consumption will be maintained at 320~470 billion kWh, and hydrogen resource consumption will be about 10 million tons.