Advanced warning method for aircraft landing risk under air–ground data real-time transmission conditions

At present, the flight safety work of civil aviation in China mainly investigates the probable causes of accidents and analyzes flight data after air accidents, causing numerous problems such as passive safety management and delayed risk control. To realize the early warning of flight risk during flight, a dynamic method for the evaluation of landing risk and early warning under the condition of future air–ground data real-time transmission was proposed. The landing stage, which has the most complex operation program and the highest accident rate during a flight, was taken as the research object, and future air-to-ground high-throughput interconnection scenarios comprising 5G and satellite networks were considered to solve the problem of advanced intelligent warnings and aircraft alarms in abnormal flights. First, according to the accident causation theory, the human factor reliability model, the system model, and other theories or models, a landing warning index system based on multisource real-time operation data and the integration of historical statistics and expert knowledge was established. Then, a grounding parameter prediction model was established to solve the problem of lag in the acquisition of four grounding parameters, namely ground pitch angle, ground speed, ground vertical rate, and 50 ft-ground horizontal flight distance in actual flight. This model classified the pilot’s landing operation mode by clustering ARJ21 historical landing data and determined the attribute mean value of the four parameters for each type of operation mode. Furthermore, according to decision field theory, the model discussed the landing mode selection of pilots with different personalities in different scenarios and calculated the selection probability of the pilot’s landing operation mode, thereby obtaining the predicted values of the four above-mentioned indicators. According to the above, aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of the landing risk early warning system, a reasoning method of the multilayer confidence rule base was proposed. This method improved the traditional reasoning method of the single-layer confidence rule base and adopted the bottom-up hierarchical reasoning method considering the complexity characteristics of the landing process, effectively integrating different sources and forms of qualitative or quantitative data. Thus, the dynamic assessment and reasoning of the landing risk were realized. Finally, using the reasoning-based calculation of the landing process for the “2020.10.16 Panzhihua runway grounding event” and “2010.8.2 Yichun air disaster,” the results verified the effectiveness of the method. It was found that the early warning time of the Panzhihua event can reach 13 s.